A significant decline in the cost of PV modules and project construction, as well as a shift from small-scale projects to cheaper capex utility-scale projects, is a main driver for an clean energy investment slowdown in 2016, says Bloomberg News Energy Finance (BNEF).
彭博新能源财经(BNEF)表示，光伏组件和项目建设的成本大幅下降，以及从小规模项目向较便宜的资本支出公共事业规模项目的转变，是2016年清洁能源投资趋势放缓的主要推动因素。
Total investment for this year is expected to fall “well short” of 2015’s upwardly revised US$348.4 billion; with investment in the Q2 totalling US$61.5 billion – and while this is up 12% from the previous quarter, it is some 32% below the US$90 billion in Q1 2015.
预计今年的总投资将“远远低于”2015年上调后的三千四百八十四亿美元，第二季度的投资总计六百一十五亿美元——而这较上季度上涨12%，较2015年第一季度九百亿美元下降32%。
In addition to falling prices, regulatory changes and “weak electricity demand” were pinpointed as further reasons for this year’s poor turnout.
除了价格不断下降，还指出监管政策的变化以及“疲软的电力需求”是今年投资贫乏的进一步原因。
“It is now looking almost certain that the global investment total for this year will fail to match 2015’s runaway record. China’s financing of wind and solar projects was even higher last year than previously estimated, and the hangover this year caused by weak electricity demand and policy changes in that country will therefore be all the greater,” said Micahel Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
彭博新能源财经咨询委员会主席Micahel Liebreich表示：“现在看起来几乎肯定的是，今年全球总投资将无法匹配2015年迅猛的纪录。去年中国风能和太阳能项目的融资甚至高于此前估计，而今年疲软的电力需求和政策变化使该差距加大。”
However, Abraham Louw, associate for economics at BNEF, noted that the low Q2 figures should not be looked at too negatively, given that last year’s investment was “really quite groundbreaking”. Q2 2015 investment figures were indeed up 11% over 2014 and 30% over 2013.
然而，BNEF的Abraham Louw指出，鉴于去年投资“真的很具有突破性” ，不应该过于消极地看待低的第二季度数字(点击查看PV-Tech此前相关报道)。2015年第二季度投资数字实际上较2014年提高11%，较2013年提高30%。
Regardless, the turnout for the first half of this year was US$116.4 billion, down 23% on the opening half of 2015. Many of the big players in clean energy investment were down; China was down by 34% to US$33.7 billion, and the Americas (excluding the US and Brazil) were down 63% at US$2.3 billion. India was down 1% at US$3.8billion, the rest of Asia Pacific down 47% at US$12.1 billion, Middle East and Africa down 46% at US$4.2 billion, and the US down 5% at US$23.1 billion.
不管怎样，今年上半年为一千一百六十四亿美元，较2015年上半年下降23%。许多大型参与者的清洁能源投资减少，中国下降34%至三百三十七亿美元，美洲(不包括美国和巴西)下降63%至二十三亿美元。印度下降1%至三十八亿美元，亚太其他地区下降47%至一百二十一亿美元，中东和非洲下降46%至四十二亿美元，美国下降5%至两百三十一亿美元。
H1 2016 2016年上半年
Small scale solar projects attracted US$19.5 billion in the first half of 2016, down 32% on H1 2015 figures. BNEF attributes much of this to lower costs, but also a “marked slowdown” in Japan, a principal player in such projects, with deployments in the country totalling US$4.6 billion in H1, down 66% on the same period of 2015.
2016年上半年小型太阳能项目吸引一百九十五亿美元，较2015年上半年数字下降32%。BNEF将这很大程度归因于较低的成本，还有在这类项目的主要参与者日本的“显著放缓”，上半年全国部署总计四十六亿美元，较2015年同期减少66%。
Asset finance of renewable energy projects brought in US$92 billion worldwide – a decline of 19% on H1 2015 figures. The biggest asset finance deals of this segment were in offshore wind in Europe. Other standout investment projects included the 100MW concentrated solar (CSP) Kathu project in South Africa, the 400MW Enel Cimarron Ben onshore wind installation in the US, and the 300MW AZTE Quaid-e-Azam PV plant in Pakistan, at an estimated US$363m.
可再生能源项目的资产融资在全球范围内带来九百二十亿美元——较2015年上半年数字下降19%。这部分最大的资产融资交易是在欧洲的海上风能。其他突出的投资项目包括位于南非的100MW聚光光热(CSP) Kathu项目，位于美国的400MW Enel Cimarron Ben陆上风能安装项目，以及位于巴基斯坦的300MW AZTE Quaid-e-Azam光伏电站，估计为3.63亿美元。
The public markets' investment in specialist clean energy companies declined 56% from H1 2015, bringing in US$3.8 billion in the first half of 2016, despite a sharp pick-up between Q1 and Q2 this year. Tesla came out on top with the largest public market funding in Q2 2016 with a US$1.7 billion secondary share issue, and two secondary issues by Chinese digital energy companies, Ningbo Sanxing Electric and Genimous Investment, worth US$457m and US$432m respectively.
尽管今年第一季度和第二季度大幅回升，但是对于专业清洁能源公司的公开市场投资较2015年上半年下降56%，2016年上半年带来三十八亿美元。2016年第二季度特斯拉(Tesla)凭借最大的公开市场融资拔得头筹，增发股票十七亿美元，中国数字能源公司宁波三星电气(Ningbo Sanxing Electric)和智度投资(Genimous Investment)均再次发行股票，各自价值为4.57亿美元和4.32亿美元。
There was a 2% increase in H1 2016 in investment from venture capital and private equity firms, totalling US$2.8 billion.
2016年上半年风险资本和私募股权公司的投资增长2%，总计二十八亿美元。
